MPF tipped to fall 8–9% in August: HK$8,694 lost per person, wiping out the HK$6,000 handout

Facing the bleakest August, the market tipped MPF to plunge 8–9% on average, hurting over two million workers — the worst month since Lehman’s 2008 collapse. Year-to-date gains were wiped out, with about HK$8,694 lost per account — completely offsetting the government’s HK$6,000 handout.

Which funds fell hardest?

JPMorgan estimated MPF down about 6% year-to-date; on the average end-2010 account of HK$144,902, that meant roughly HK$8,694 lost per person.

What did experts think of the outlook?

Views differed, but the consensus was: not a bear market yet. JPMorgan’s investment information director Alan Choi called August an abnormal extreme, expecting equities to steady in the final quarter — JPMorgan’s Asia portfolios had started bottom-fishing quality H-shares. RCM’s Kenrick Chung argued the US would avoid a double dip and China a hard landing: 2007’s great bull market would not return, but a bear market was still distant; RCM favoured Asia and emerging markets.

Bonds were the clear winner, with global bonds tipped for 2% — though experts cautioned that over the long run, bonds rarely beat equities. Compare long-term fund returns with MPF fund search.